{"id":579,"date":"2023-06-22T09:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T13:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finaixcorp.com\/?p=579"},"modified":"2025-04-17T16:59:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T20:59:25","slug":"can-large-language-models-produce-more-accurate-analyst-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finaixcorp.com\/fr\/2023\/06\/22\/can-large-language-models-produce-more-accurate-analyst-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Large Language Models Produce More Accurate Analyst Forecasts?"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=\u00a0\u00bbin_container\u00a0\u00bb full_screen_row_position=\u00a0\u00bbmiddle\u00a0\u00bb column_margin=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_direction=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_direction_tablet=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_direction_phone=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb scene_position=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb bottom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb50&Prime; bottom_padding_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb50&Prime; bottom_padding_phone=\u00a0\u00bb25&Prime; text_color=\u00a0\u00bbdark\u00a0\u00bb text_align=\u00a0\u00bbleft\u00a0\u00bb row_border_radius=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb row_border_radius_applies=\u00a0\u00bbbg\u00a0\u00bb overflow=\u00a0\u00bbvisible\u00a0\u00bb overlay_strength=\u00a0\u00bb0.3&Prime; gradient_direction=\u00a0\u00bbleft_to_right\u00a0\u00bb shape_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb bg_image_animation=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb gradient_type=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb shape_type=\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column column_padding=\u00a0\u00bbno-extra-padding\u00a0\u00bb column_padding_tablet=\u00a0\u00bbinherit\u00a0\u00bb column_padding_phone=\u00a0\u00bbinherit\u00a0\u00bb column_padding_position=\u00a0\u00bball\u00a0\u00bb column_element_direction_desktop=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_element_spacing=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb desktop_text_alignment=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb tablet_text_alignment=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb phone_text_alignment=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb background_color_opacity=\u00a0\u00bb1&Prime; background_hover_color_opacity=\u00a0\u00bb1&Prime; column_backdrop_filter=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb column_shadow=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb column_border_radius=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb column_link_target=\u00a0\u00bb_self\u00a0\u00bb column_position=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb gradient_direction=\u00a0\u00bbleft_to_right\u00a0\u00bb overlay_strength=\u00a0\u00bb0.3&Prime; width=\u00a0\u00bb1\/1&Prime; tablet_width_inherit=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb animation_type=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb bg_image_animation=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb border_type=\u00a0\u00bbsimple\u00a0\u00bb column_border_width=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb column_border_style=\u00a0\u00bbsolid\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0\u00bb text_direction=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb]\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Using textual information from a complete history of regular quarterly and annual (10-Q and 10-K) filings by U.S. corporations, we train machine learning algorithms and large language models, LLMs, to predict future earnings surprises.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>First<\/b>, the length of MD&amp;A section on its own is negatively associated with future earnings surprises and firm returns in the cross-section.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Second<\/b>, neither sentiment-based nor classic NLPs approaches are able to \u201clearn\u201d from the past managerial discussions to forecast future earnings.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Third<\/b>, only \u201cfinance-trained\u201d LLMs have the capacity to \u201cunderstand\u201d the contexts of previous discussions to predict both positive and negative earnings surprises, and future firm returns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Our evidence indicates significant, and somewhat hidden in the complexity of presentations, informational content of publicly disclosed corporate filings, and superior (to human) abilities of more recent AI models to identify it.<\/span><\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=\u00a0\u00bbin_container\u00a0\u00bb full_screen_row_position=\u00a0\u00bbmiddle\u00a0\u00bb column_margin=\u00a0\u00bb20px\u00a0\u00bb equal_height=\u00a0\u00bbyes\u00a0\u00bb content_placement=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb column_direction=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_direction_tablet=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb column_direction_phone=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb scene_position=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb text_color=\u00a0\u00bbdark\u00a0\u00bb text_align=\u00a0\u00bbleft\u00a0\u00bb row_border_radius=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb row_border_radius_applies=\u00a0\u00bbbg\u00a0\u00bb overflow=\u00a0\u00bbvisible\u00a0\u00bb overlay_strength=\u00a0\u00bb0.3&Prime; 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